Oura Ring Gen 4 sensor data — not clinical measurementsN=1 case study — not validated for clinical decisionsHEV diagnosed Mar 18; interpret findings cautiously in this Day 25 post-ruxolitinib window

Ruxolitinib Forecast

Generated 2026-04-11 07:03 · Patient 1 — Ruxolitinib Forecast
HRV (7-DAY)
Deficient
9.4ms
Target: 15 ms ESC threshold
Average RMSSD over past 7 nights
LOWEST HR (7-DAY)
Elevated
75.9bpm
Target: <70 bpm
Mean lowest heart rate over past 7 nights
DAYS ON RUX
Info
26days
Since 2026-03-16
Days since ruxolitinib initiation
FIRST TARGET ETA
Abnormal
No trend
HRV reaching ESC 15 ms threshold
Expected date based on current trajectory

Forecast Summary

Treatment duration: 26 days on ruxolitinib

HRV (RMSSD) Forecast:
• Current 7-day mean: 9.43 ms
No positive trend detected (slope: -0.26 ms/week)

Heart Rate Forecast:
• Current 7-day mean: 75.86 bpm
No decreasing trend detected

HRV & HR Trajectories with Forecast

Milestone Timeline

Model Comparison: Linear vs Exponential (HRV)

Insufficient data for model comparison.

Three-Phase Recovery Context

Methodology & Caveats

Data: 20 post-ruxolitinib HRV observations, 20 post-ruxolitinib HR observations from Oura Ring Gen 4 (consumer wearable, not clinical-grade).

Linear model: OLS regression on day number since treatment start (2026-03-16). Bootstrap: 1000 resamples for confidence intervals.

Exponential model: y = a · (1 - e-t/τ) + baseline, fit via scipy.optimize.curve_fit with bounded parameters. Model selection by AIC (lower = better).

Three scenarios: Optimistic (75th pct slope), Expected (50th pct), Conservative (25th pct).

Limitations (small N): With only ~20 data points, forecasts carry wide confidence intervals and may shift substantially as more data accumulates. Physiological recovery is non-linear and depends on factors not captured in wearable data (infection status, medication changes, immune reconstitution). These projections are exploratory, not clinical recommendations.